Türkiye–Greece Relations: Could Tensions Escalate into Armed Conflict?

Could developments escalate into armed conflict? And if so, what would the consequences be?

PUGAT authors answered for you whether Greek–Turkish relations, which took on a new dimension with the President’s statements, could turn into armed conflict, and what the possible effects on the global and Turkish agenda would be…

Sezai Akyüz:

I have always compared the relationship between these two countries to that of relatives who cannot get along but live in houses right next to each other. For years, the political quarrels between Greece and Türkiye have been a profitable source of votes for politicians in both countries. Armed conflict and war, however, would create a chaos that neither country, both already economically fragile, could bear. The fact that both are NATO members is another reason that greatly reduces the likelihood of conflict.

Since its economic bankruptcy, Greece has become a satellite of the EU, especially of Germany. Militarily, too, it has long been equipped through US grants and support in exchange for bases. Naturally, this can be read as meaning that these countries also have a say in the steps it takes, and will take, in foreign and domestic policy. Although the recent increase in the US military presence has emboldened Greece, ‘Big Brother’ will not allow developments to turn into armed conflict.

Any move by Türkiye against Greece would in effect mean confronting the US and the EU, so a ‘rational government’ will avoid armed conflict. I use the phrase ‘rational government’ deliberately, because we are talking about an ambitious government that, if the possibility of losing the elections truly threatened its power, would not rule out this option as a scenario for escaping the elections.

Salih Durmuş:

Under normal circumstances, the likelihood that the tension between Türkiye and Greece, escalated consciously or unconsciously in recent days, will turn into armed conflict is low. Such tensions have arisen many times in recent history and ended at certain points. However, the statements and attitudes of some politicians with extreme views and senior military officers in the leadership of both sides, as well as the Turkish government’s stance, which contradicts diplomacy and the long-standing state tradition, show that this tension could always turn into armed conflict. 

Any border tension or armed conflict between Greece and Türkiye would naturally be mirrored to the same degree in Cyprus. In such a case, armed clashes among soldiers, police, militias and civilians there would be likely. Any state of emergency or mobilisation declared would also apply there de facto.  The air and naval forces of both sides would also be likely to confront each other around Cyprus.

On the other hand, armed conflict between two NATO member states would be an unimaginably important development for Russia, and Russia would provide every kind of open or covert support that could lead to Türkiye’s expulsion from NATO. It would do everything it could to deepen this conflict and keep it unresolved.

In this process, an annexation of Northern Cyprus by the Turkish government would also be highly likely. The US position would naturally be decisive for subsequent developments.

Ali Kerem Sezgin:

The President of Türkiye, going through the most difficult period of his 20 years in power, openly threatened Greece by claiming that it had unlawfully militarised the islands in the Aegean Sea.

Looking at the current situation in Türkiye in this light, we see an economy close to bankruptcy, run by unqualified, hollow cadres and facing hyperinflation. As a result, Erdoğan faces the lowest poll ratings of his time in power.

So we can state the outcome from the outset. These statements are unlikely to turn into a major conflict. That a government which knowingly turned a blind eye to the militarisation of the islands for years should react this way now is simply one of the remedies it has found in domestic politics to win back lost votes.

Taking into account Greece’s lobbying power in the US and the trust Türkiye has lost with the US and the EU because of its pro-Russian policies, Greece appears to be several steps ahead. The statements of the US and the EU on this issue already point in this direction. That is also why it is obvious that Greece would be the supported side in any conflict.

Though unlikely, it would not be surprising at all if, in the coming days, the Turkish government presented through its own media a success story similar to the Kardak (Imia) crisis.

Finally, so as not to overlook it, from Russia’s side a possible conflict, even a war, is the most desired course of action at this time, perhaps even supported behind the scenes. A second front against the West would thus be opened and a strategic ally such as Türkiye would be won.