Russia–Ukraine War: Why Is There Still No Clear Picture, Contrary to Expectations?

Given the time that has passed, why is there still no clear picture, contrary to expectations?

We asked PUGAT authors about the war between Ukraine and Russia, which is still claimed to be a superpower. Taking into account the time that has passed, our authors assessed the current picture with regard to the parties and their supporters…

Serhat Aksoy:

From the first day Russia began massing its troops on the Ukrainian border under the guise of exercises, it signalled that it would enter Ukraine. US intelligence had established that Russia intended to enter Ukrainian territory, and the time Russia spent before launching the operation allowed Ukraine to prepare.

Although Russia initially declared Kyiv as its target, the operation developed in the Donbas region. Because the units were spread over a very wide area, no centre of gravity could be established. It would not be wrong to say that Putin ran the entire operation from the centre and left little initiative to the commanders at the front. This caused Russian generals to be late in seizing the opportunities that arose on their fronts and created a weakness in the chain of command.

Another mistake Russia made in the Ukraine war was the expectation of quick results, as in the Georgian operation. The resulting picture, however, shows that Russia did not study the battlefield sufficiently. Many Russian units were stuck where they were because of terrain and weather conditions. Naturally, this delay allowed Ukrainian units to receive more support and make good use of the advantages that weather and terrain gave them.

By failing to assess correctly the logistical support Ukraine could receive from Europe, Russia lost the advantages of the principles of speed and simplicity. The time and manpower Russia lost strengthened Ukraine’s determination to continue the fight and ensured the continued flow of logistics.

Mehmet Kılıçparlar:

It is almost four months since Russia’s attempt to invade Ukraine began. During this time, Ukraine’s most prominent advantage has been its people’s belief that they will free their country from Russian occupation. The absence of a clear picture, as at present, can be regarded as a success for Ukraine.

The reason for this picture is the resistance Ukraine has shown. Before the invasion, nobody thought Ukraine could resist Russia, which has the world’s second-largest army. This resistance enabled Ukraine to receive more military aid from other countries. Ukraine’s likely tactic will be to drag out the invasion attempt and carry on in this way. There is no chance of driving Russia, which has seized the east of the country in particular, out of its territory all at once.

Ukraine will try to inflict maximum casualties on Russia using irregular warfare methods and, in the long term, to turn Ukrainian territory into a quagmire for Russia. Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that they were losing an average of 100 personnel a day. In other words, painful as it is, time is working in Ukraine’s favour.

Bayram Bayır (lawyer):

Looking at the main goals and situation of the countries supporting Ukraine:

• Aid is kept at a certain level so that the war remains limited. The aim is to prevent the possibility of a nuclear attack or an attack on a third country in the event of heavy Russian losses or a major defeat.
• The aim is to re-establish relations with Russia after the war. Macron’s statements that ‘Russia should not be provoked too much because relations could be re-established after the war’ can be seen in this context. In the long term, it seems difficult for Europe to meet its energy needs through a channel other than Russia.
• I believe seasonal conditions are one of the most important factors in determining the duration of the war. Russia attacked Ukraine at the end of winter. In general, Europe’s sanctions intensified as the weather warmed. I believe the war will end close to the time the weather turns cold, and that Europe is at least planning accordingly.
• The US has achieved many of its goals in the short term, but a prolonged war will also be challenging for the US in the long term. The US has faced its highest inflation figures in 40 years. Biden stated that this was linked to the war in Ukraine. Such figures were not seen even during the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.

In this war on the European continent, the countries supporting Ukraine are, in a sense, at war too. In its latest statements, Ukraine said that apart from the aid received, its ammunition was close to running out. In short, the outcome and intensity of the war lie entirely in the hands of the countries supporting Ukraine.

Update (November 2026): Contrary to some of the forecasts in this article, the war did not end in autumn 2022 and turned into a war of attrition lasting years.