China–Taiwan Tension: Could It Turn into a War Soon?

Is there a chance it could turn into a war soon? What effects can we foresee?

We tried to assess the effects of the China–Taiwan tension, a candidate to become the most important issue on the world agenda, on world politics, the world economy and Turkey.

Bayram Bayır:

In the chip sector, regarded as the oil of the 21st century, Taiwan accounts for more than 60% of contract manufacturing (foundry) revenue. Given the complexity of the chip industry and the serious economic power its production infrastructure requires, Taiwan’s share does not look likely to change in the near future either.

With the sanctions imposed on China under Trump, many companies turned to Taiwan for chips. In the recent past the dependence of the world’s giants on Taiwan has grown. After the Taiwan crisis, public incentives and private investment commitments worth hundreds of billions of dollars were mobilised worldwide for the chip industry, and the process is continuing.

A standard car contains on average 1,000 chips. Mobile phones, computers, aircraft, household appliances, weapons systems: chips are found in almost every technological system you can think of. A Taiwan–China war would inevitably hit these sectors directly.

In a Taiwan–China war that may break out in the near future, Mark Liu, chairman of TSMC, Taiwan’s chipmaker producing more than about 10,000 different products, stated clearly that in the event of a possible invasion of Taiwan by China, TSMC’s factories would be rendered inoperable and chip production would stop.

Because the economic repercussions of a possible Taiwan–China war would directly hit the chip industry, the heart of technology, the consequences would be very serious. This impact, which would be many times greater even than the global repercussions of the Ukraine–Russia war, is deeply worrying many technology giants. It would slow or even halt billions of dollars of industrial production and leave millions of people unable to keep their jobs. A possible Taiwan–China war would trigger an economic earthquake in the world.

Cebrail Bozkurt:

The centuries-old struggle of the dominant powers over buffer zones and bases continues. America has not confronted Russia and China militarily, but they continue their economic and democratic (!) struggle through the countries under their sovereignty and influence. By backing Ukraine against Russia and Taiwan against China, the US and the EU are moving towards forming an East–West bloc. Europe’s stance has become clear over the past two years.

In its report “The EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific”, published in September 2021, the European Commission warns that rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait could directly affect Europe’s security and prosperity. In December 2021 a 43-member Slovak delegation led by Deputy Economy Minister Karol Galek visited Taiwan, taking an important step towards developing bilateral trade relations; the Irish Senate approved a resolution condemning China’s stance towards Taiwan, while Germany sharply criticised the possibility of a violent change to the “status quo” in the Taiwan region.

In recent days, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi and Senator Ed Markey made two separate high-level visits to Taiwan.

A process and statements similar to those before the invasion of Ukraine are following one after another. Just as the US shared intelligence on the invasion of Ukraine in real time, it is now putting plans for an invasion of Taiwan on the agenda. Although the EU and the US have been loudly criticised for their delay and passivity over the invasion of Ukraine, there is no sanction in place that would stop China.

We cannot know whether a world war will start, but it is clear that the polarisation that has grown over the past year after the invasions is taking the world into a different era. In a world where democratic and economic support does not prevent invasions, war may not be far from knocking on every country’s door.

Ali Kerem Sezgin:

Just as the world’s body is trying to get used to the heavy symptoms of the Russia–Ukraine war, we are facing a new crisis that has suddenly erupted. This time the problem is many times greater than the war in Ukraine. Because Europe stood firm, the Russia–Ukraine war has not gone beyond being regional and has not grown enough to spread to other European countries.

In the picture emerging in the Asia-Pacific, however, the situation is far more serious than it looks. Although China and Taiwan appear to face each other, US President Biden said that the US would defend Taiwan in the event of a military intervention (the White House then stressed that US policy towards Taiwan had not changed). We see that the real parties are the US and China, and that these two states are the world’s number one and number two military and economic powers. In a possible war, 40% of the world economy would be directly affected.

Turkey, which pursued a balancing policy in the Russia–Ukraine war, has not yet made a statement on this issue. On one side is China, top of the list in Turkey’s imports at more than 32 billion dollars in 2021; on the other, Taiwan, with an import volume of 2 billion dollars. Turkey, which puts economic interests first, will probably make its position clear in favour of the Chinese government after the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting it expects to attend in September.

It would be futile to expect a government and an opposition that cannot even criticise or react to China’s policies towards the Uyghur Turks to take a stance against China on the Taiwan crisis. Frankly, Turkey’s stance on this issue does not seem to carry much weight on a global scale.