The Afghan Influx and Turkey

After America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, the country was left, so to speak, without a master. The Taliban, which took control of 85 per cent of the country in a short time, is this time faster and more ruthless. A major collapse is under way especially among the Afghan police and army. The reduction to zero within ten years of the roughly one hundred thousand American troops stationed in Afghanistan for years has put the countries of the region, Afghans above all, on edge. Everyone the US and NATO forces came into contact with during their time in the country, from cooks to interpreters, from soldiers to police, is accused by the Taliban of collaborating with infidels and, unfortunately, is “waiting their turn”.

US President Biden said they would grant special visas to Afghans who had supported them, but unfortunately he is not aware that these visa procedures need to move faster than the Taliban’s advance. Biden, who answered criticism such as “After all these years you are leaving the country to the Taliban. Do you realise that from now on the US is responsible for the deaths in Afghanistan?” with “We have been training the Afghan army for years; it is now the Afghans’ job to establish their own security and future”, won the hearts of the Afghan people with his emotional(!) speech. On his way out he also asked for the support of the countries of the region.  He seems to have found his successor on watch easily.

The profile of the soldier who will take on responsibility in the region after the American army should be as follows: Able to take the risk of hot combat in a harsh terrain that made even the American army sweat for years (about 20,000 casualties in twenty years), able to make NATO’s presence felt in the country, able to intervene in a possible civil war, and able to guard the airport that ensures the departure from the country of Western countries’ supporters, personnel and aid organisations. The best candidate, of course, is the Turkish soldier, the Mehmetçik.

The profile of the country volunteering for this job is also of the rare kind. This country must have lost the trust of NATO and the Western world with its erratic policies, must have set the US against itself with the senseless S-400 crisis, and its leaders must have been blacklisted for corruption, drug trafficking and many other crimes. It must also have pending cases with heavy consequences, such as the Halkbank case. Finding such a country these days is not so easy. The only country that will shoulder both a quagmire like Afghanistan and the hardship of millions of displaced people is, unfortunately, “Turkey”. Its Muslim identity and its good relations with Pakistan are thought to have a positive effect on solving the Afghanistan problem.

About 4 million Afghans are expected to leave the country in the coming months, and it appears their first destination will be Turkey. Because Iran, their other likely destination, is struggling with an economic crisis and directs those who arrive, without delay, to the more “hospitable” Turkey.

Turkey is seen as an important springboard for crossing into Europe. The inability to keep proper track of who enters the country and the failure to integrate millions of people into working or social life are pregnant with major social problems. For example, according to the European Commission, about 20 per cent of the Syrians in Turkey are not registered. It is obvious that we have been caught even less prepared for the arrival of the Afghans.

According to the Afghanistan expert Prof. William Maley, the millions of people leaving their homelands cannot be called refugees. Nor can the Syrians living in Turkey who go back and forth to their country for the holidays be defined as refugees. The Afghans crossing the border in droves, filmed on their mobile phones by Turkish gendarmes and reported, again, to the Turkish gendarmerie, unfortunately do not fall within the definition of refugee accepted by treaties either. They are the product of an entirely different agreement. It is not at all a far-fetched possibility that the Afghan masses will open space for Erdoğan and even prolong the life of his rule.

Let us hope that, with the uncontrolled Afghan influx, Turkey does not host an Erdoğanist-jihadist paramilitary structure like the Free Syrian Army. Let us hope that among the thousands of Afghans flowing into the country there are none with other calculations, or ready to be recruited for devilish plans.

Are we being too optimistic?