The Taliban’s Strategy

The Taliban, which emerged in 1994 from among the religious groups that had launched the resistance against the Soviet occupation, is advancing towards becoming the sole ruler of Afghanistan. The decision to leave the country to the Taliban was in fact taken in 2020, that is, under Trump, in Doha, Qatar. According to US President Biden, this decision has tied the new US administration’s hands.

One party to the agreement was the US, the other the Taliban. Under the agreement, applauded by Russia, China and Pakistan, US and NATO forces would gradually withdraw from the country. And the Taliban, handed the keys to the country, would not allow terrorist formations in the country. That is the agreement. Indeed, the agreement published on the official website of the US State Department is that short and clear.

But at present the situation in the country is, in the words of security experts, “clear as mud”. It is known that the European Union does not officially recognise the Taliban. Yet judging by the statements of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the doors are not entirely closed. For now everyone is watching the Taliban. As von der Leyen implied, how ruthless or how civilised they are is being debated.

According to experts, the Taliban, having adopted a “strategy of cautious optimism”, is trying to persuade both Afghans and the world even as it “descends” on the country.

In short, the Taliban has three concerns:

The first is to fill the vacuums. By quickly filling the power vacuum in the country, it wants to give a name to what is happening. In Afghanistan today there is a large population waiting quietly at home to see what will happen. And the number of Taliban opponents is not small either.

Although the Taliban’s rapid advance surprised even NATO, a small spark and a feeble resistance could suddenly drag the country into civil war. The last fortress of that resistance is the Panjshir Valley. Panjshir, the only region that has not surrendered, casts a shadow over the Taliban’s prestige but is keeping quiet for now. This is interpreted in two ways. The first is the claim that negotiations with the “Lions of Panjshir” are continuing. The other is that the Taliban needs time to manage the process.

The second vacuum the Taliban must fill is manpower and its quality. Although it is not yet known how many of those fleeing the country count as brain drain, it is clear that trained manpower will be needed in many professional groups, above all civil servants and teachers. The Taliban, too, is sooner or later beginning to understand that founding a new country is not only a matter of armed resistance. “Moving up a level” is not that easy.

The third vacuum is international relations and public opinion. Although China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan have some kind of relationship with the Taliban, international support led by the US and Europe is very important. Without this support, in that geography no state can be founded and no one can sleep in peace. According to Chatham House, it is impossible for a country like Afghanistan to survive without outside support. Even if the Taliban manages to rebuild the state, this reality will not change. So the Taliban, which seized most of the state quickly and easily, must also take international public opinion into account.

It can therefore be said that the Taliban, certain that its every move in the country is being watched, is acting more “moderately” than expected. Its active use of social media, its “humane” visit to the building of Tolo News, the country’s largest news channel, and even its allowing a female news presenter to broadcast on the streets are cautious steps of a communication strategy the Taliban is following.

On social media platforms, meanwhile, minds are confused. Facebook’s management, which recently set up a rapid response team, suspended both the Facebook and the WhatsApp accounts of a Taliban official. YouTube and Twitter, trying to understand whether there is a de facto relationship between the US government and the Taliban, are not interfering with posts that do not call for violence.

As for Turkey…

Let us finish with the fine closing line of fairy tales. Three apples have fallen from the sky, for now. One: The Afghan influx. Two: The use of Turkish soldiers. And the other: The reconstruction of Afghanistan. Everyone will take their share, it seems.