The Istanbul Talks: A Stroke of Luck

In Russia’s attempted invasion of Ukraine, which began on 24 February, the negotiations at the table continue while the parties fight on the ground. Depending on the state of the fighting on the ground, the items discussed at the table take shape in favour of or against the parties.

Russia and Ukraine met in Belarus just four days after the attempted invasion. After Belarus had hosted three rounds of negotiations between the parties, talk began of holding the meeting elsewhere. Although the Russian and Ukrainian delegations met in Antalya at foreign-minister level on 10 March, there was no concrete progress in the negotiations.

After President Erdoğan’s contacts with the heads of state, it was agreed that the delegations would meet in Istanbul on 29 March, hosted by Turkey. Before the delegations gathered in Istanbul began negotiating, President Erdoğan told the parties: “The world is waiting for good news from you.” The delegates standing up to applaud Erdoğan at the end of the speech were described by the “pool media” as “images that amazed the world”. Comments were made that Turkey had achieved a great success, that the whole world was hanging on Turkey’s every word and that Turkey was now determining the course of events.

It is worth examining a little whether Turkey and Erdoğan really achieved a success in the process that followed.

The Talks in Belarus

Belarus is a country under Russian domination that had also hosted the “Minsk Agreement” previously signed between Ukraine and Russia. Russia also sent troops into Ukraine from Belarus, and dozens of missile attacks were launched from this country as well. In recent days there has been talk that Belarus too will send troops to Ukraine and become one of the parties to the attempted invasion.

For Russia, Belarus is the most suitable country for the negotiations to be held. If the negotiations were held and continued in Belarus, we could conclude that the psychological and battlefield advantage lay with Russia. But at this point the most important factor in moving the table from Belarus to Turkey is the heavy losses Ukraine has inflicted on Russia. In other words, the fact that the talks are being held in Istanbul is Ukraine’s success, not Erdoğan’s. The relations of Russia and Ukraine with Turkey will lead us to the answer to the question of why the talks are taking place in Turkey rather than in another country.

Turkey–Russia Relations

Since Russia’s attempted invasion of Ukraine, Turkey has been the country most affected economically after Ukraine. Even the Russian economy, subject to sanctions by hundreds of brands and dozens of countries, has been less affected than Turkey. A sanction imposed by Russia could have been a disaster for the Turkish economy with this degree of fragility.

After Turkey shot down a Russian plane, Erdoğan apologised to Russia, and the mutual win-win relationship between the parties evolved to a level where Putin was the boss. During this time Erdoğan was repeatedly humiliated by Putin. Even after a Russian attack in which dozens of our soldiers were killed, Putin kept Erdoğan waiting at his door and then served the footage of the wait to the media.

Turkey was now buying S-400 missiles from Russia and carrying out whatever Putin decided in Syria, Karabakh and other developments. While distancing itself from NATO and the West, it was entering Russia’s orbit. Some circles even described Turkey as Russia’s “Trojan horse” within NATO.

For Russia, after Belarus, Turkey would of course be the best country under its sway that the West could also accept. At present there is no NATO country other than Turkey that does not apply sanctions against Russia. Not only has Turkey not imposed any sanctions on Russia, including closing its airspace, it is looking for ways to turn this crisis into an economic opportunity.

Turkey–Ukraine Relations

President Erdoğan had gone to Ukraine a few weeks before the attempted invasion, and agreements were signed between the parties in eight areas. Before that, Ukraine had bought UAVs and armed UAVs from Turkey. While Turkey wanted to benefit from Ukraine’s heavy industry, Ukraine aimed for Turkey to stand by it against Russia and to make it easier to buy UAVs and armed UAVs.

During the attempted invasion Erdoğan defended Ukraine’s territorial integrity and criticised NATO for not intervening against Russia. In addition, the brother of Erdoğan’s son-in-law and partner in the Bayraktar company was tweeting praise of Ukrainian President Zelensky as a hero.

Most importantly, although it is seen as the naughty child, Turkey is a NATO country. For Ukraine, the very fact that the meeting is held in a NATO country is reason enough on its own for psychological superiority.

From the point of view of NATO and the West, too, the situation is no different from what Ukraine thinks. For the European countries and the US, Turkey is the best candidate that Russia could also accept. Because for them Erdoğan is someone who can communicate with Russia and who, if given material advantages, could even come to defend their rights against Russia. That is why the leaders of Israel, Germany and the Netherlands visited Turkey one after another. In the coming period, leaders of other countries will probably also come to Turkey.

The Istanbul Talks

The talks held in Istanbul on 29 March had been planned for two days, but at the end of the first day it was decided to end them. At the conclusion of the meeting the Russian side said it would scale back its attacks. It became clear that the Russian troops withdrawing from the Kyiv region in particular would regroup in the rear and go back on the offensive with a different tactic and a stronger force.

Turkey had no mediating or similar role between the parties. Turkey had no other function than hosting the meeting.

However, Erdoğan’s media, through perception management, presented this situation differently. At present the main reason the meeting took place in Istanbul, that is, the reason the parties agreed on Turkey, is the belief that in the coming process both sides could easily draw Turkey to their own side. In other words, for both Russia and Ukraine, Turkey is where their interests intersect.

Putting all of this together, we can say that a stroke of luck landed on Erdoğan’s head, allowing him to turn these into material for domestic politics, and that he continues and will continue to use developments in foreign policy for his own political and material interests. (Update note, November 2026: The Istanbul talks stalled in April 2022 after the massacre in Bucha came to light. In July 2022 Turkey, together with the UN, brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Russian and Ukrainian delegations held direct talks in Istanbul again in 2025.)