The Role of Intelligence against Asymmetric Threats in Counter-Terrorism

Guest Author – Salih Ergün

| Part 1

Today, as terrorism has spread as a strategy of struggle in the modern age and emerged as a global threat, ensuring individual and social security has become one of states’ most important concerns. However great their military and economic power, states governed by national and international law and accountable to their own people and to world opinion face an asymmetric terrorist threat that is bound by no rules and exacts a very heavy price at very little cost.

The “asymmetric threat”, defined as initiatives based on exploiting the enemy’s weaknesses while undermining its strengths by using methods and approaches different from the expected courses of action[1], can be regarded as the most dynamic problem area of today’s security environment. Its low predictability, its unusual or unconventional nature, its ability to cause great destruction at low cost, and the fact that responding with the same tactics and methods is unacceptable for states founded on democracy and human rights are the features that give asymmetric threats an initial advantage over states.

One of the most important advantages terrorist organisations have in creating an asymmetric effect on states is that they enjoy free and flexible decision-making over the place, time and target of their attacks. Terrorist organisations, for which lawlessness is the most basic rule, use violence as a means of communication by exerting overwhelming pressure on the target audience through flexible and rapid decision-making[2]. They mostly carry out these acts of violence by exploiting the innocence of civilians until the last possible moment and hiding the weapons, explosives and similar criminal materials they carry.

Eliminating the advantages of asymmetric threats is possible strategically by narrowing the discourse and propaganda space of terrorist organisations, and tactically by reducing the terrorists’ ability to organise, restricting their freedom of movement and putting pressure on their leadership, their centre of gravity, so as to disrupt their decision-making and limit their capacity for attacks. This requires knowing when, where, how and what the members of the organisation are doing. Consequently, one of the most important capabilities security forces need for tactical success against terrorists is a comprehensive intelligence infrastructure that includes real-time target detection and identification.

In this article we will first stress the importance of intelligence in the “fight against terrorists” dimension of counter-terrorism, and assess the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as a tool for producing imagery intelligence in counter-terrorism and the target detection and identification capabilities they offer. In the following articles we will focus on “terahertz technology”, which aims to improve the means of identifying and classifying detected threats, consider “the use of terahertz imaging systems on unmanned aerial vehicles” as a model, and try to set out the gains expected from this integration.

The Role of Intelligence in Counter-Terrorism

Methods of obtaining intelligence in the fight against terrorists are undergoing a paradigm shift from personnel- and unit-centred reconnaissance and surveillance to technology-based detection and identification systems. Intelligence that was once sought through operations involving hundreds or even thousands of personnel can today be obtained with far fewer personnel, resources and casualties and with a higher degree of accuracy.

At the most basic level, the methods of producing intelligence are imagery intelligence, measurement and signature intelligence, signals intelligence, human intelligence and open-source intelligence.[3] Using these basic methods, each with its own advantages and difficulties, together, in a coordinated and collective way makes it possible to produce the most accurate intelligence[4].

In today’s global security environment, the general tendency in advanced countries fighting terrorists is to increase and expand the use of technology in producing intelligence. Technology alone is not enough to ensure security, but without a technological infrastructure it is also very hard to succeed against asymmetric threats. The use of technology plays a key role in defining threats, detecting and identifying them, and acting against identified targets.

Thanks to the integration of technology with the defence industry, the manpower-intensive techniques once widely used are increasingly giving way to unmanned platforms and the integrated systems mounted on them. In asymmetric warfare, against the adversary’s cheap tactics that cause losses beyond price, using technological superiority to minimise asymmetric effects has become important. In this context, obtaining intelligence through technology-based unmanned platforms, which carry less risk and deliver more precise results, has emerged as the preferred method[5].

In the next article we will continue our journey towards terahertz technology by looking at the use of unmanned aerial vehicles in counter-terrorism and at the concept of payload.