Will History Repeat Itself and Start a Third World War?

Until the United States (US) entered the First World War on the side of the “Entente Powers”, the American press referred to it as the “European War”. After the war US President Wilson led the way in establishing the League of Nations. The idea of the League of Nations, which emerged after the First World War to build a world order suited to American interests, was also conceived as an effective way of preserving world peace.

The First World War brought a true human tragedy to the whole world. During the war more than 65 million (65,038,810) soldiers were mobilised; more than 8.5 million of them (8,556,315) lost their lives, over 21 million (21,219,452) were wounded, and more than 7.5 million (7,750,945) went missing or were taken prisoner.[1]

As a result of these efforts, the League of Nations was founded on 10 January 1920, with its seat in Geneva, Switzerland, to resolve disputes that might arise between states by peaceful means. Over its lifetime it had 63 members from different continents. Apart from France and Britain, its founders included countries that had fought against Germany in the First World War or had remained neutral. Turkey joined the League of Nations in 1932. Although the League was founded under US leadership, the US was unable to join it because of the negative votes of the US Senate.

The League of Nations was the first organisation to achieve universality by including countries outside Europe and to be founded with the openly declared aim of preserving world peace. It also had a distinctive way of working: Participating states took decisions together, and the decisions taken were binding on member states. Many states sent their prime ministers and foreign ministers as heads of their delegations to the General Assembly meetings. The Assembly held its ordinary sessions every September.

The Soviet Union attacked Finland on 30 November 1939. Finland then appealed to the League of Nations, and the Soviet attack began to be discussed in Geneva between 9 and 14 December 1939. Britain, which had already fallen out with Japan, Italy and Germany over League decisions, did not want to fall out with the Soviet Union as well. Nevertheless the League of Nations, wishing to respond more harshly to the Soviet attack than to the earlier ones, expelled the Soviet Union from membership on 14 December 1939 on the grounds that it had violated the Covenant. Thus, for the first and last time in the League’s history, a state was expelled from membership. In the process of expelling the Soviet Union, however, the League had violated its own norms. For while unanimity was required for an expulsion decision, only seven of the fifteen Council members voted to expel the Soviet Union. Moreover, three (Bolivia, Egypt and South Africa) of the seven states that voted for the expulsion (Britain, Belgium, France, Egypt, South Africa, Bolivia and the Dominican Republic) had been elected to the Council only the day before the vote.

During the Second World War, which began in 1939, the League of Nations was unable to do any work to resolve the problems.[2]

There are various reasons why the League of Nations, which came into force in 1920, remained ineffective in ensuring international peace and security. The fact that a great power such as the US, which had led the work on the Covenant, did not become a member weakened the League’s effectiveness.[3]

Owing to structural problems in the system as originally designed, the inadequacy of its decision-making mechanism and the actions of member states contrary to its founding purpose, the League of Nations gradually became ineffective. As a result the League, which served its member states for twenty years, could not, despite all efforts, prevent the Second World War, one of the greatest tragedies in human history. After the Second World War, the legal existence of the League of Nations came to an end at the 21st Assembly meeting held on 18 April 1946.[4]

The US not joining the League of Nations led to comments that it was a “stillborn baby”. Later, Germany’s departure and the expulsion of the USSR considerably reduced the League’s effectiveness. After the Second World War there was a need for a new body, more active than the League of Nations, of which the US and the USSR would be an important part. That body was the United Nations.

From the League of Nations to the United Nations

The League of Nations’ failure to make the necessary contribution to “world peace”, the fact that the US never joined it and the USSR was expelled in 1939, and its inability to prevent the outbreak of the Second World War led all the countries of the world to search for a new order that would prevent new wars likely to break out.

The United Nations, founded on 24 October 1945, is an international organisation that aims to preserve world peace and security and to build economic, social and cultural cooperation. The United Nations defines itself as “a global organisation that aims to provide justice and security, economic development and social equality internationally to all countries”. The first treaty to prohibit the use of force in international relations at the universal level is the Charter of the United Nations, signed by 50 countries on 26 June 1945.

The six principal organs of the United Nations are the General Assembly, the Security Council, the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), the Trusteeship Council, the International Court of Justice and the UN Secretariat. Of these, the organ with the most critical function is the Security Council.

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC)

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is the UN’s most powerful organ, charged with maintaining security and peace among member states. While the other UN organs can only adopt recommendations, it is one of the two UN organs, together with the International Court of Justice, with the power to take binding decisions. This binding force is clearly set out in the UN Charter, which has been signed by nearly all member states.

The UNSC has 15 member states. Five of these are permanent members and ten are elected members. The USSR and the Republic of China were among the founding members of the UN. In 1991 the Russian Federation took over the USSR’s UN membership, while China’s representation at the UN passed to the People’s Republic of China under General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 25 October 1971. The permanent members with the right to veto decisions in the UN Security Council are the US, the United Kingdom, France, the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation, alongside ten non-permanent members. The ten rotating members are chosen every two years in elections held in the UN General Assembly. The Council Presidency rotates among the members every month.

In recent years many countries, including Turkey, have made various proposals for restructuring the UN. In addition, Germany and Japan have announced that they want to become permanent members of the UNSC. As a result of developments, different approaches began to be put forward regarding the structure of the UNSC and especially regarding the UNSC membership of Russia, which uses its veto power to paralyse the Council. Among them were radical ideas about Russia’s UNSC membership.

The Invasion of Ukraine and Russia’s UNSC Membership

With Russia’s attempted invasion of Ukraine, the world’s economic and political order began to evolve into a different shape. The West began to pursue a policy of isolating Russia. First it was expelled from the “Council of Europe” on 16 March 2022, and on 16 September 2022 it ceased to be a party to the “European Convention on Human Rights”. Then its membership of the “United Nations Human Rights Council” was suspended.

Finally, a debate began on its removal from the “Security Council”, the most powerful body of the United Nations. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that whether Russia’s membership of the United Nations Security Council should continue had to be questioned. Blinken stated that Russia was targeting civilians and that cars, buses and ambulances had been hit in the attacks. Ukrainian President Zelensky also keeps stressing that Russia must be isolated further and removed from the UNSC.

Can Russia Be Removed from the UNSC?

The UN Charter does not set out a way to remove a permanent member of the Security Council. Under the Charter, a country can be expelled from the UN by the General Assembly upon a vote on the recommendation of the Security Council. Article 6 of the Charter explains this rule as follows: “A Member of the United Nations which has persistently violated the Principles contained in the present Charter may be expelled from the Organization by the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security Council.” When this rule is applied, it is clear that a recommendation from the Security Council is required for Russia to be expelled from the UN. It does not seem realistic that Russia, as a permanent member with veto power, would agree to its own expulsion.

Amending the UN Charter’s rules on expulsion is another proposed method. Under Article 108 of the UN Charter, amendments must be adopted by two thirds of the General Assembly. The key point, however, is the requirement that, for the amendment to enter into force, the two-thirds majority ratifying it must include all the permanent members of the Security Council. Here again it becomes clear that this would be impossible if Russia, or another permanent member, did not approve the amendment.

In short, Russia does not allow any substantive decision it opposes to emerge from the Security Council. With its veto power it blocks decisions it does not want. Russia’s use of its veto to block decisions has pushed those seeking to impose sanctions on Russia, led by the US, to look for other ways towards their goals. The most discussed idea to emerge from this search is quite striking.

Russia or the USSR?

Article 23 of the United Nations Charter lists the permanent members as follows: “The Security Council shall consist of eleven Members of the United Nations. The Republic of China, France, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America shall be permanent members of the Security Council.”

According to the Charter, the right of permanent membership belongs to the USSR, not to Russia. For those who argue that Russia should be removed from the UNSC, this is presented as a method. It is claimed that the state that emerged as Russia after the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 is not the USSR, and that even its flag is different. After these claims, Ukrainian President Zelensky also began voicing this argument.

While many circles support Russia’s removal from the UNSC, they make no assessment of what would happen after a possible removal. This approach brought to mind the USSR’s expulsion from the League of Nations after the Second World War had begun, and the League’s subsequent paralysis.

History Repeating Itself?

In 1939 the USSR was expelled from the League of Nations for attacking Finland, “outside the normal procedure” and “by skirting around the law”. Throughout the Second World War, which was already under way, the League remained ineffective.

Six years after its expulsion from the League of Nations, the USSR became one of the most important parts of the newly established world order. It earned this right by emerging victorious from the Second World War.

Today Russia, sitting in the USSR’s seat, has launched an attempted invasion of Ukraine. Will expelling Russia from the United Nations and isolating it be enough on its own? Suppose Russia were taken out of the equation. What then about China, or North Korea? It is impossible to say that they would simply stand by and watch all this.

In such a situation, all the countries currently seen as a “nuclear threat” would position themselves where Russia stands. This positioning would stem not only from their warm relations with Russia but also from the aim of breaking the influence of the US, which had taken Russia out of the equation.

Let us hope that the mistakes made in running the League of Nations are not repeated at the UN. For the United Nations is currently the only platform where the countries of the world can come together. The creation of a new platform could mean, as after the First and Second World Wars, a new world war, that is, a Third World War.