The İstiklal Avenue Bomb: Whoever Manages Perceptions Wins the Election

There is no doubt that the attack on İstiklal Avenue is linked to the approaching elections, and at this stage it does not matter who carried it out. Of course this must be investigated, and the perpetrators, instigators and those who gave the orders must be caught one by one. But there is something more important, a question that must be discussed first and urgently: Was there any intelligence that such an attack would take place? If there was, what precautions were taken? If there was not, who will pay the price for this failure?

Those who govern the country should have more important responsibilities than mourning and lecturing others. The responsibility to take precautions, for instance. And where they fail to take precautions, the responsibility to give an account. Negligent officials and bureaucrats lecture others instead of being held accountable.

You cannot fight terrorism with an Interior Minister and a security bureaucracy under him that hide the government’s failures behind the ever-popular slogan “Down with America”. Restricting the public’s freedom to access accurate news on the one hand while, on the other, making statements based on unverified information that sow resentment, hatred and hostility in society is incompatible with the standards of responsibility expected of the state.

I know that sound judgement in the conduct of state affairs was lost in this country long ago, but we must not grow accustomed to that loss. Demanding from those in power policies based on common sense, sound judgement and professional intelligence, and building public pressure so that those responsible are held to account, is the most natural right of every citizen. The political opposition has this right too, yet for a long time it has behaved as if it had waived it in favour of the government.

What Is the Message of the Bomb?

May God have mercy on those who died in the attack, and we wish the wounded a speedy recovery. It is a fact that, for those who had that bomb detonated on İstiklal Avenue, the number of citizens killed does not matter at all. For them the bomb went off in the right place at the right time. That is how things stand for the perpetrators. But what about the political front?

Does the government feel the pain of the lives lost? Or is it brazenly picking over the aspects of the matter that could be useful as material for domestic politics? The government’s statements, which heal no wound and ease no pain, strengthen the conviction that this is exactly the case.

Neither the government nor the opposition has set out concrete strategies, announced to the public, that would determine the direction of the Turkey of 2023.

The government, admittedly, is using the advantages of being in power as always. It has concrete election campaigns: the mass housing project, improvements for those caught by the retirement-age rules (EYT), the TOGG car project, which is thought to have no resonance among the public but in fact feeds the reflex of sanctifying the state, and the aim of putting as much money as possible into voters’ pockets before the elections, down to the last penny in the state coffers. And these campaigns are more reckless than ever.

The opposition parties, for their part, have still not managed to steer their “table of six” adventure into a channel that would shape the coming elections and the Turkey of 2023. Nor have they produced any other argument. They are also making the grave mistake of fighting the government by greedily consuming its own rhetoric. Their policies towards the HDP and the Kurds speak for themselves. If an opposition looking for a way out continues in this unfortunate determination to rely on the government’s recipes, Turkey will unfortunately be the loser once again.

Of course, none of this is enough to show the “interested” public where those who govern the Republic of Turkey, and those who aspire to govern it, stand on regional and global policy. I think one of the main reasons this bomb went off was to force the parties to make their positions on these matters clear. At this point we might think that the bomb that exploded on İstiklal Avenue gave both the government and the opposition an opportunity to answer the following questions:

• Make up your minds now: what exactly is your election strategy?
• Tell us now: who is your presidential candidate?
• Will you go into the election with the support of the Kurds, or by turning the Kurds into enemies?
• What do you think about living together with the Kurds and governing the country together?
• Will your attitude towards refugees be constructive, or will you cheer on the “get out” rhetoric?
• Will you commit to acting in line with international agreements in Syria, or will you go your own way?
• Russia or the US? Have you set the order of your alliances? Your answer?

A few more could perhaps be added to these. Depending on the answers to these questions, it will be decided whether a second, perhaps a third bomb will go off. By whom? By those who set off the first bomb, of course. Who are they? From here on it is conspiracy theory. For now, let us content ourselves with calling them the domestic and foreign power centres that steer events and have the power to manipulate the country’s government, or in short (worn-out as the term may be) the “deep state”.

Whoever Manages Perceptions Wins the Election

The coming election will be won by whoever manages perceptions best: the government, the opposition or the “deep state”.

This mechanism has always been at work in past elections too. And more often than not, the results matched the perception managed by these covert power structures. As the nearest example, it is enough to recall the bombs that went off between the June and November elections of 2015. Unfortunately, the 2023 election process is being entered with similar motives.

Whether government or opposition, whoever from now on can put forward an independent will and manage this process, and of course public perception, will be the winner of the election.

If perception management is left to the covert power structures, the “coalition” formed by whoever dares to ally with them will cross the finish line first.

And the bitter truth! If neither the government nor the opposition takes a clear stand against allying with these covert power structures, more people are likely to suffer.

The government cannot muster the courage to open a way out of this vicious circle. Love of office, the ambition to rule, the lure of money, political and personal ambitions and fear of prosecution make it give the green light to every kind of dirty alliance. Just as it has done until now.

At this stage it is of no use to look for an answer to the question of whether the government has a direct or indirect hand in the blood that is shed and the schemes that are afoot. Establishing this requires lengthy investigations. The time left before the elections is not enough for such an inquiry to be concluded. Nor is the political and legal climate favourable for it. Perhaps later.

The task of finding a workable way out of this vicious circle rests on the shoulders of the opposition. By now the opposition must have understood that building its election strategy on airing the government’s dirty laundry has not worked for 20 years. Instead it must press on with positive messages and concrete steps that will make its own star shine.

The opposition must forge this path with courage and determination, even if it comes at a cost. Turkey needs this courage to free itself from anti-democratic labyrinths, dark whirlpools and the hegemony of thieves, the shameless, despots and covert power structures.