Artificial Intelligence and Intelligence

The primary task of intelligence services is to gather information on a wide range of threats using particular methods, to analyse it and to present the results to policymakers.

Put as a mission statement, it is to fulfil an early-warning function by gathering and assessing information in order to prevent risks to the peaceful coexistence of societies. (Maaßen 2017/431).

Yet at no point in history have intelligence services been used exactly for this purpose. While detecting potential dangers in advance should be the reason they exist, priorities have often shifted towards national interests, or even the interests of policymakers.

Over the last hundred years, in the proxy wars that followed devastating wars, the role of intelligence services used as an “auxiliary force” has grown steadily. The best example is hybrid warfare, a combination of conventional military and intelligence methods.

Hybrid warfare makes possible many covert operations, from political, moral or economic aid and military support to backing and training terrorist groups and the covert use of special forces to influence the media and the public.

And the indispensable element of covert operations is the support of secret services. That is why the world’s leading countries are racing to develop their own intelligence services.

In this race, artificial intelligence has brought a new dimension to the struggle between secret services because of its potential to shift the balance. It has also become possible for terrorist groups to use AI to carry out intelligence analysis and develop strategies.

According to experts, there has been a record increase since 2022 in the use of AI-generated images for disinformation. Andreas Dengel, executive director of the German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI) in Kaiserslautern, says:

“Depending on how and where they are used, they can sometimes have very dangerous consequences. The progress made in this field in recent years is not a revolution but a rapid evolution. Excellent, expensive software is easily accessible, and these methods are quickly becoming popular with the masses.”

Intelligence in Cyberspace

Cyberspace is a term most people have heard but few know exactly what it means. Without understanding this term, the use of AI-powered technologies in intelligence cannot be fully understood.

In short, “cyberspace” consists of four components.

• Physical infrastructure
• Software infrastructure
• Information
• People

(Clemente, 2015: 163-164)

Examples of physical infrastructure include all kinds of computer systems, satellites, wired and wireless networks and smart devices.

Software infrastructure covers the operating systems, applications and communication protocols that allow the devices and systems above to run and communicate with each other.

Information is any data that results from the systems making up the physical infrastructure communicating through software programs.

Shared images, videos, e-mails, reports and news, in other words billions of pieces of content containing data, fall under information.

People, the fourth element of cyberspace, set up the systems that make up cyberspace and build the language through which these systems communicate. They store and process data on the systems they build and use it for their own benefit.

Cyberspace is directly related to industry, health, education, finance, media, the military and defence.

Seen from an intelligence perspective, so broad and critical a domain contains many threats and dangers, but also brings many opportunities and conveniences. An action that takes months in real life can happen in seconds in cyberspace.

For example, while moving a library from one place to another takes months in real life, transferring a library’s worth of data elsewhere in cyberspace can take minutes.

From a security perspective, the “space” in cyberspace was not chosen at random; as in real space, it suggests a boundless expanse. Because making data on this scale meaningful requires a capability beyond human intelligence and abilities, artificial intelligence has become indispensable here.

For AI to be used effectively in intelligence, the following main elements are important:

Data Collection and Processing

AI can collect and process large amounts of data quickly. This data can come from all kinds of open sources in cyberspace, from social media platforms, news and other intelligence sources.

China, for instance, aims to find the person it is looking for within a short time in huge metropolises home to millions by integrating AI-powered facial recognition systems with the camera networks it has installed.

Analytical Capabilities and Deep Learning

Deep learning algorithms can recognise and make sense of complex relationships and patterns and thus predict future events.

Thanks to deep learning, AI can also be far faster and cheaper than humans at language and translation.

Translating from one language into another cannot be done simply by translating all the words in a text. To get a meaningful result, one must master both languages and the sociological and cultural circumstances of the societies that speak them. That is why intelligence services employ hundreds of staff with foreign languages, but thanks to AI-assisted translation systems their ability to monitor communications in different languages and translate long texts is improving every day.

In the near future, the need to employ separate linguists for hundreds of languages, and the time lost in doing so, will surely disappear, and human-caused information leaks will also decrease.

Security and Confidentiality

Ensuring the security and confidentiality of AI-based intelligence systems depends directly on the technology used. Data protection and defences against unauthorised access must be strong.

In this field, counter-intelligence infrastructure must be reinterpreted to face AI-assisted intelligence. It is expected that the greatest rivalry between countries will play out in this area.

The success of countries that use AI against AI will be determined by the AI technologies they use.

Human–AI Cooperation

People and AI systems can produce the most effective results by working together. It is important for humans to verify and interpret the results produced by AI. This approach, known as the hybrid intelligence model, underlines that human intelligence is still needed in intelligence analysis.

Rapid and Flexible Response Capability

Intelligence means something only if it is delivered on time. AI systems must be flexible enough to adapt to fast-changing threats and situations. Real-time analysis and response capability is therefore important.

Ethical Principles

Ethical principles must be taken into account in the use of AI-based intelligence. Although intrusion into people’s privacy for intelligence purposes may be necessary for security, its limits must be set by the legislator.

Bringing these elements together is important for the effective use of AI in intelligence.

Conclusion

The struggle of the future, and even the wars that may break out, will first be fought in the information domain.

When an information war breaking out in cyberspace began, who is waging it, what its aim is and how successful it has been remain hard questions to answer even for many countries’ secret services.

That is why, as we enter the age of artificial intelligence, the countries that shape the world of the future will be those that possess this technology.